By Shayna Goldman | The Athletic
July 1 is obviously a big day for free agents — not just the
current class, but also next year’s group. It marks the first
day that players a year away from free agency are eligible to
sign an extension.
Considering that next year’s class of unrestricted free agents
is headlined with star power and high-end talents, it won’t be
surprising to see teams try to pursue extensions sooner than
later. That adds another level of intrigue to the next year.
Here are 10 standout players set to hit unrestricted free
agency next summer to keep an eye on.
Auston Matthews
The contract situations of the Maple Leafs’ core forwards has
only raised the already high pressure in Toronto. Matthews is
nearing the end of a five-year deal that carries a $11.6
million cap hit. And considering the no-movement clause
that’s set to kick in on July 1, he has all of the control in this
situation.
If he pushes the contract conversation to summer,
or indicates that he doesn’t want to extend, Toronto can’t do
anything about it and could risk losing him for nothing.
That’s something that new general manager Brad Treliving
has to try to avoid, which is why it wouldn’t be surprising to
see them explore an extension as soon as possible.
But at
what cost, and term?
As it stands, he’s set to have the fourth-most-expensive cap
hit in the NHL in 2023-24. His actual salary, however, isn’t as
high. His front-loaded contract was worth $15.9 million in the
first year, and trended down to just under $8 million next
year.
Moving forward, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him
jump out as the highest-paid player in the league, ahead of
Nathan MacKinnon (who is starting an eight year contract
worth $12.6 million on average).
Evolving-Hockey’s projections have Matthews at a matching
deal a year ahead of reaching free agency, and another
strong year likely boosts that. Let’s say he takes a deal with
the same cap hit percentage as MacKinnon (15.3) — the cap
only going up by $1 million would land him at approximately
$13 million, on average. If the cap rises closer to $87.5
million, that goes up to $13.4 million.
But it’s possible he will
opt for a pricey short-term deal, and if he goes anywhere
near his value on the open market (which management
obviously wants to avoid), he could try to get that upwards of
$15 million.
That may create challenges elsewhere for the team,
obviously, because he’s not the only player who will be
looking for a raise.
William Nylander
On July 1, the Maple Leafs also will be contemplating
Nylander’s next contract. A year later, they’ll also be in a
similar situation with Mitch Marner (though they get the cap
relief of John Tavares’ contract expiring). That’s why the
pressure was even greater on Toronto this past year, and will
be next year, because these rising costs may cost them
elsewhere.
Nylander is on the most cap-friendly deal of the team’s core,
as it caries just a $6.9 million AAV. Despite some of the
drama around the signing at the time, it grades out as one of
Kyle Dubas’ best signings. But now there’s new
management in charge that is going to have to deal with
Nylander looking for a sizable raise to match his high-caliber
play.
It won’t be surprising to see that ask go to upward of $9
million a year, on average. That’s where The Athletic’s Dom
Luszczyszyn’s model has his average market value over the
next seven years coming in.
Evolving-Hockey, to compare,
projects an eight year deal (if Nylander were up for a deal
this summer) with a $9.6 million cap hit. That likely puts him
in a range closer to Filip Forsberg among the recent longterm
winger contracts around the league.
Sebastian Aho
Like Toronto, the Hurricanes have to start building an offer
for their number-one center, Aho.
He’s not going to be the
only player looking for a new deal, though — Carolina has a
number of free agents to worry about.
Teuvo Teravainen,
Brett Pesce and Brady Skeji will all need new deals, as will
RFAs Seth Jarvis and Marty Necas. They do, however, have
cap space to use on extensions, and Aho will likely continue
to take up the most space of the bunch.
That’s already the case right now, as Aho’s cap hit is just shy
of $8.5 million, because the Canes matched an offer sheet
form Montreal. Now, after years of strong two-way play for
the Hurricanes, that’s bound to increase.
If he were to be a
free agent this summer, Evolving-Hockey would have him
with an eight-year extension worth approximately $10.5
million. That’s pretty in line with his market value, per
Luszczyszyn’s model.
That would be a richer deal than the ones Carolina tends to
give out, but this is their franchise center.
Jake Guentzel
With new leadership running the show, Pittsburgh is facing a
tough task of trying to stay competitive during the next two
years of Sidney Crosby’s contract without completely burning
their future.
At the same time, management will have to start thinking
about Guentzel’s next deal, since his five-year contract,
worth $5 million on average, is expiring next summer. It
seems like a no-brainer to extend the team’s top winger,
especially if they want to compete in that last year of
Crosby’s deal.
An extension could very well make him the highest-paid
player on the team, if he’s looking at a deal that pays him
more than $9 million on average. But it’s also possible, to maintain cost-efficiency, that the Penguins try to keep him
below that benchmark.
Either way, Pittsburgh should have
the space, even in those later years, because they won’t
have a number of active contracts on the books by then.
Elias Lindholm
New general manager Craig Conroy has the task of
solidifying his center depth around Nazem Kadri and his
pricey contract over the next year.
Calgary’s two-way pivots,
Lindholm and Mikael Backlund, both have a year left on their
contracts.
Lindholm is in the last year of a very cost-effective contract, a
six-year deal with a $4.9 million cap hit. There may be a
bigger gap between what the player should be worth on the
market and what he may sign for.
Evolving-Hockey projects
a max-term, eight-year deal worth $8.7 million a year on
average. That would make Bo Horvat, Dylan Larkin and Mika
Zibanejad very close comparables on his next deal.
Recent center contracts may prop up Lindholm’s ask, but the
Flames should want to knock it a bit lower based on what he
projects to be over the years. Plus, there’s a number of other
expiring contracts they have to balance in 2024.
Jonathan Marchessault
A Stanley Cup championship and a Conn Smythe Trophy for
Marchessault, a year ahead of his contract expiring, sure is
timely if he wants to talk about an early extension.
Marchessalt probably isn’t going to be signed to some
massive, expensive contract, since this next deal will kick in
when he’s 33.
Evolving-Hockey projects a four year deal
worth a $6.6 million AAV. That’s a slight raise from what he’s
currently making, and would take up slightly more cap space.
Even though it’s more than what he’s worth over the next few
years, it’s a deal that he more than likely could get in free
agency next summer as long as his game doesn’t completely
tank next season.
Considering his value to the team, it wouldn’t be surprising to
see the Golden Knights prioritize keeping one of their original
misfits. But there’s only so much spending room considering
their tendencies, plus Chandler Stephenson also needs a
contract at the same time as Marchessault.
On the other
hand, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the winger take a more
cost-effective deal, considering the fact that Vegas is the one
team he’s played on that has valued him as a mainstay
player.
Devon Toews
Shifting to the blue line, Toews is set to be one of the top
defensemen on the free-agent market.
Considering
Colorado’s cap situation, there’s a legitimate chance he will
reach the open market.
The Avalanche have a lot invested in their core players —
approximately $38 million between MacKinnon, Mikko
Rantanen, Gabriel Landeskog and Cale Makar.
The trouble
they face this summer is that they have only five forwards
and five defenders under contract, without a ton of space to
maneuver through. And if Landeskog’s recovery goes
according to plan and he can return for 2024-25, that’s cap
relief Colorado will lose when they need to extend Toews.
Toews is on an excellent contract right now, one that costs
just $4.1 million in space for an elite defenseman. That’s less
than half of his market value over the next seven years,
which Luszczyszyn’s model has at approximately $10.6
million.
Even if the defenseman signs closer to EvolvingHockey’s
projection for him (eight years at approximately
$8.1 million if he were to be a free agent this summer), it
likely takes some work to make space for him.
Maybe there’s a greater emphasis on entry-level talent or
minimum salaries around the core than there already was.
Or maybe bigger contracts, outside the core, will get moved
to clear space.
Brandon Montour
Montour is coming off a career year that got highlighted on a
national stage during the Panthers’ run to the Stanley Cup
Final.
His offensive impact pushed him up the depth chart in
Florida, and that should get him paid accordingly at some
point in the next year. It’s possible that the Panthers first
want to see if he can duplicate this season before committing
to him long-term.
On the flip side, they run the risk of waiting
too long, and his cost rising, if he does play like a true toppair
defender.
The Panthers will free up some space this summer with
Patric Hörnqvist’s contract expiring, and will shed a bit more
if Radko Gudas leaves as a free agent.
Plus there’s ways to
clear even more with someone like Sam Bennett or Sam
Reinhart.
Montour won’t be their only UFA in 2024, not even
on defense with Gustav Forsling’s deal expiring.
Still, Florida
should find a way to have the space for Montour — unless
they somehow swing a big deal and invest it in another top
defenseman.
Connor Hellebuyck
True number one goaltenders are hard to come by, and two
will be UFAs next summer. But their situations really differ.
Hellebuyck, who is in the last year of a six-year contract that
carries a $6.2 annaul cap hit, is almost certainly not sticking
around in Winnipeg. The elite goalie probably will be traded
elsewhere before his deal expires.
Maybe Winnipeg will look
for a sign-and-trade deal to maximize the return and help
facilitate this process.
There’s a number of teams that should be interested in
Hellebuyck and look to sign him — especially with the
confidence of knowing that he can manage playing behind a
bad defensive team.
But what could a deal look like? There’s
fewer examples to draw on, but a true number one like
Andrei Vasilevskiy, who signed an eight-year deal carrying a
$9.5 million cap hit, may be somewhat of a model for this
deal.
That being said, there’s an age difference that may give a
team some pause; Vasilevskiy signed that contract at age
25, while Hellebuyck will be 31 when his new deal starts. The
Sergei Bobrovsky contract may be one that sways teams
away from massive contracts to goalies after they’re 30
years old.
Ilya Sorokin
While Hellebuyck probably won’t stay with his current team,
Sorokin more than likely will.
His three-year, $12 million contract will be expiring after a Vezina-caliber year, and the
Islanders need their number one.
The trouble for the Islanders is that their long-term salary cap
picture will continue to fill up with what is bound to be a big
contract for Sorokin.
Evolving-Hockey projects similar eightyear
deals for him and Hellebuyck, with cap hits of
approximately $9 million. While the team probably doesn’t
want a logjam down the line, the later years probably won’t
be Lou Lamoriello’s concern.
The real question is whether Lamoriello’s old-school ways
somehow will push his contract value below what it should
be. Only one player on the Islanders makes $9 million, on
average, per year. Maybe the fact that he doesn’t have as
much experience playing at an elite level, like Hellebuyck
does, hurts him. But the fact that he’ll be two years younger
when it starts should help.
Honorable mentions: Jake DeBrusk, Brett Pesce, Brady
Skjei, Noah Hanifin, Mikeal Backlund, Jordan Eberle, Steven
Stamkos.
Source: Carolina Hurricanes